Bitcoin's Future: What Lies Ahead

Will it continue to rise?With many positive blessings, the market value of Bitcoin has successfully exceeded US$1.2 trillion, accounting for 50.5% of all crypto assets. The current price of Bitcoin is stable above US$61,000. Specifically, according to Glassnode data, contrary to the upward trend of Bitcoin, some Bitcoin holders (long-term holders) who have held positions for more than one year have chosen to leave the market.However, institutions including some sovereign states have stated that they will continue to hold shares.El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele said that El Salvador’s current Bitcoin holdings have made more than 40% profit and there are no plans to sell Bitcoin.The Bitcoin holdings of MicroStrategy, a listed company in the United States, have exceeded US$5.878 billion. It currently holds a total of 193,000 Bitcoins, with an average purchase price of US$31,544 per coin.There are various signs that most investors, including institutional investors, have begun to "FOMO".However, as the "Panic and Greed" index reaches extreme greed, Matrixport Lianchuang also sent a signal that the current market sentiment has reached a level that it believes should be treated with caution, and by the end of April we should see a healthy downward adjustment of about 15%. Specific adjustments may appear in March.From a macro perspective, as Matrixport Lianchuang said, "March is already a tricky month (Fed meeting and BTFP)." Looking at the previous economic history of the United States, interest rate cuts since the beginning of 2000 have often been accompanied by risks in the market. fell, so the expectation of interest rate cuts is not simply negative or good for the crypto market, and the interest rate cut in April may promote a new round of rise; at the same time, if we refer to the trend after the passage of the gold ETF, the positive impact of the Bitcoin spot ETF will be passed It started to weaken after two months (second quarter); and for the Bitcoin halving, as the market value of Bitcoin has increased in recent years, will the current market value repeat the previous increase of dozens of times? Maybe the space above is limited.The current rise in Bitcoin is most likely caused by the market's "FOMO" sentiment. After Bitcoin experienced a surge and flash crash to $59,000 last night (perhaps caused by the Coinbase outage), it was accompanied by the departure of some long-term investors. The market and buying orders are relatively weak, and there is a high probability that it will enter the adjustment stage.

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