真正的“疯狂上涨”，今年最强势商品涨得不容忽视

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当地时间周一，纽约可可价格历史上首次突破9000美元大关，并迅速上涨至9600美元，单日涨幅超过700美元，连续第四天上涨。

这也意味着这种巧克力生产的关键原材料今年已经翻了一番，仅本月就上涨了约60%。

这种破纪录的涨势没有放缓的迹象，可可价格几乎每天都创下新高。

此轮上涨将把可可价格推至1万美元，这个水平在几个月前还是难以想象的，使得可可比“风向标”工业金属铜还要贵。

尽管技术指标在过去几个月的大部分时间都处于超买区域，但价格仍在继续攀升。

伦敦的可可价格也在上涨。

可可价格逼近 10,000 美元大关

由于市场紧张，巧克力制造商正在争夺可可豆。

主要原因是西非收成不佳。

世界上大部分可可产于西非（主要是科特迪瓦和加纳），但由于当地种植者因恶劣天气和作物病害而收成不佳，该行业陷入困境，而其他地方的产量几乎没有增长的迹象。

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全球第二大种植国加纳面临财务挑战的消息进一步推动了这一涨幅。

由于可可作物危机导致该国没有足够的可可豆来获得资金，加纳将无法获得关键的融资安排。

加纳可可委员会是行业监管机构，依靠外国融资向可可种植者支付可可豆费用。

ArrowStream Inc.的高级大宗商品分析师约翰·古德温(John Goodwin)表示：“我认为没有人能够微笑地预测这列火车将在哪里停靠，因为这种反弹是前所未有的。”

可可价格上涨将导致全年巧克力价格上涨，并在整体食品通胀放缓之际威胁消费者糖果价格进一步上涨。

由于去年的价格飙升，复活节彩蛋变得越来越昂贵，一些制造商正在限制巧克力棒的尺寸或推广含有其他替代成分的品种，以减轻冲击。

彭博社分析师戴安娜·戈麦斯 (Diana Gomes) 在周五的一份报告中表示：“如果可可病害和恶劣天气导致高糖价导致巧克力短缺的情况持续下去，那么 2025 年复活节巧克力的价格可能会更高。”

供应情况可能会恶化。

欧盟即将出台新规定，防止破坏森林的产品在商店销售，这可能会让欧盟顶级巧克力制造商更难确保供应。

Focus now turns to West Africa's upcoming midterm crop, the smaller of two annual harvests. Bloomberg reported earlier this month that regulators in Ivory Coast, the largest cocoa grower, expect production to fall this quarter. Arrivals of cocoa beans for export at the country's ports are almost 30% lower than at the same time last year. The International Cocoa Organization predicts a global deficit this quarter for the third consecutive year. Major chocolate maker Barry Callebaut AG has warned that a severe shortage of cocoa beans will continue into next season.

The wild trading is showing up in both futures spreads and volatility. The May contract's premium over July futures surged to more than $800 from less than $100 in February, a sign of concerns about a near-term supply crunch. The rise in cocoa has also been accompanied by greater price swings, with volatility measures reaching their highest levels in a decade.

5月合约相对于7月期货的溢价从2月份的不足100美元飙升至800美元以上，这是对近期供应紧张缩水的一个疯狂担忧

Contract spreads and volatility reflect how crazy the market is

No other major commodity tracked by Bloomberg can match cocoa's performance at the start of the year. Cocoa's gains in less than three months already exceed any full-year gains recorded for New York cocoa since 1976. According to statistics, the cumulative increase in New York cocoa futures over the past year has reached an astonishing 309%. Although it is still slightly inferior to Nvidia's increase in the same period (+352%), it far exceeds Bitcoin (+237%).

This year’s hottest commodities

While cocoa prices are surging, speculators have actually been retreating from the market. Open interest has fallen from a peak in late January, and in the latest week, fund managers reduced their net bullish positions to a one-year low. This suggests spot buyers may have played a key role in the price increase.

Speculators have effectively exited the market

Hightower reports:

“Cocoa prices continue to reach unprecedented heights as tight supplies and forecasts of significant declines in global production trigger panic buying.”

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data

热点：上涨