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比特币（BTC）在 2 月 20 日经历了大幅回调，从盘中高点 53,019 美元跌至低点 50,812 美元，跌幅高达 4%，有可能抹去过去 7 天的涨幅。
这种回调导致交易者重新评估加密货币市场的总体状况，引发了关于山寨币季节（altseason）是否到来的争论。
比特币/美元日线图。来源： TradingView 比特币价格回调的背后是什么？
交易员和市场分析师认为，持续的价格暴跌是比特币减半周期五个阶段的一部分，比特币可能会经历减半前的回调，然后进入广泛预期的减半后抛物线上升趋势。
加密货币交易员兼分析师 Rekt Capital 在 2 月 15 日的 X 帖子中分享了以下图表，称比特币在恢复上升趋势之前还剩下“最后一次减半前回撤”。
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) 2024 年 2 月 15 日
独立市场分析师 Sjuul 指出，比特币的融资利率很高，警告交易者“预计会出现全面调整”。
“在我看来，这是我们都在寻找的逢低买入机会。”
市场情报公司 Santiment 指出，“中型交易员的重大举动往往是”获利了结和“逢低买入”的绝佳信号。
“在过去两周内，拥有 1 万至 10 万美元的 #stablecoin 持有者：增加了 4430 万美元的 USDT。”
这表明他们可能准备逢低买入，以防出现回调。
USDC 和 USDT 10K-100K 供应量。资料来源：Santiment 比特币与山寨币
山寨币在过去 12 个月中表现出色，实现了两位数和三位数的涨幅，其中一些表现优于比特币。其中一些在更短的时间内表现出了更好的性能。
根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，比特币在过去 12 个月内上涨了 107%，Solana (SOL) 上涨了 308%，Avalanche 的 AVAX 上涨了 80%，Chainlink (LINK) 上涨了 136%。
链上分析公司 Glassnode 的最新数据显示，虽然“BTC 和 ETH 处于领先地位，年初至今涨幅分别为 17.6% 和 18.2%”，但比特币年初至今的表现超过了山寨币市场总体表现帽。
Glassnode 分析师 Alice Kohn 表示：“山寨币的总市值并未经历同样的表现，年初至今的增长还不到两大主要货币的一半。”
比特币与山寨币年初至今的市值表现。来源：Glassnode
Glassnode 指出，尽管 1 月份现货比特币 ETF 获得批准后，以太坊 (ETH) 的表现开始跑赢 BTC，但其表现在 2 月 8 日却低于比特币。
According to Glassnode, the performance of digital assets can also be tracked by using Realized Cap for each sector, a metric that “aggregates the cost basis value of all coins transferred on-chain.”
Glassnode notes that Bitcoin continues to display dominance seeing approximately “$20B in capital inflows per month at present.” As the chart below highlights, Bitcoin’s dominance has continued to grow with a 1000% surge in relative market cap since October 2023.
Market realized value next capital change. Source: Glassnode
“It is evident that capital moves down the risk curve into Altcoins at a slower pace compared to the rotation between the two major cryptocurrencies, a trend which appears to be in play once again,” notes the report. “Bitcoin continues to lead with over 52% market share of the total digital asset market cap.”
Related: Bitcoin holdings on Coinbase reach lowest level since 2015 as whales withdraw $1B BTC
How close is altseason?
On Feb. 18, independent analyst Stockmoney Lizards told his followers on the X social media platform that he believes “many #Altcoins are about to skyrocket in the next #Altseason.”
The analyst shared a chart showing that the altcoin market cap had scaled above a significant support area and entered into a bull run similar to the 10x returns experienced in 2021.
“We are close.”
Many #Altcoins are about to skyrocket in next #Altseason. We are close. pic.twitter.com/1uvRQdWqzU
— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) February 18, 2024
Even though some signs are there, it may still be too early to confirm the altcoin season. Glassnode’s altseason indicator has shown positive momentum since October last year and turned positive on Feb. 4 after taking a pause during the sell-the-news event triggered by the Bitcoin ETFs approval in January.
Altcoin season indicator. Source: Glassnode
Interestingly, the indicator has remained positive since then, an indication that the market is now in a risk-on mode, showing the confidence that the investors have in the altcoins right now.
Data from Blockchain Center shows that only 59% of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed BTC during the last 90-day period. Although this index has been increasing over the last few days, it is still not enough to declare an altcoin season. For an altseason to be declared, this percentage has to move above 75%.
Altcoin season index. Source: Blockchain Center
Glassnode concludes, “our Altcoin Indicator suggests a more mature and possibly sustained uptick in Altcoin markets, however, it remains relatively concentrated in higher market cap assets at this time.”
This means that signs of an altcoin season as starting to merge, but it might be too early to make the call.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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