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核心焦点：为什么大家都说6月会出现大回调？
首先，你是不是很困惑，没有看到6月之后回调的具体逻辑？
今天猴哥就从多个维度给大家详细分析一下！
事实上，这是一个非常简单的逻辑。侯哥之前也提到过判断市场的条件因素。不知道你还记得吗？
一切市场走势都必须由各种条件驱动，把复杂的事情简单化，思路清晰，顺应仓位操作，这样才能抓住一波又一波的趋势行情。
如果两个方向的情况都比较平缓，那么市场会很纠结，波动会更大一些。等待一方的条件逐渐变得更加有利才开始！
1、宏观因素：
美元指数近期大幅反弹，突破周压制线。因此，市场上有不少声音指向美国6月FOMC会议首次降息。降息的概率还是比较大的。核心机构预测6月份利率至少降幅25%。降息概率约为76个基点，市场普遍预计美联储7月或之前降息概率接近90%
按照以往的市场逻辑，降息实施后、前期，风险市场会出现向下回调的趋势，这是市场预期提前消化、回归正常市场估值比率的正常状态。
与加密货币市场相关的示例：
还记得2019年8月1日，是美联储多年来首次降息。此前，符合宏观预期，加密市场已经经历了一波行情走势。降息实施后，市场应该经历了比特币的一波回调。从一万多u下降到了6000多u！
2020年3月3日，美联储开始今年首次降息。然而，在2020年3月降息减半的预期下，比特币从6000多U反弹至10000U。3月3日降息后，市场出现了一次回调，大家对312的出现印象深刻。疫情的蔓延加深了这一调整的幅度。随后，大量放水作为基础后，行情缓慢前行。
2、技术因素：
我们可以看下面的趋势分析图。比特币逐月持续上涨，至今尚未出现大幅回调。今年6月，长期上涨抑制线价格在10万美元左右。
3、情绪因素：
The significance of Bitcoin's 100,000 USD mark is far greater than that of reaching 10,000 USD for the first time that year. In particular, the spread of retail investor sentiment FOMO is faster and more powerful than all previous Bitcoin integer thresholds and all-time highs. Much bigger!
By then, we will see countless exchanges posting Bitcoin price posters, all industry practitioners and people in the crypto market posting on WeChat Moments, the media will also publicize the news on various social platforms, and hot searches will continue.
100,000 US dollars is also very close to the 120,000 US dollars predicted by Brother Monkey, but I think 120,000 US dollars and above will still be reached after the interest rate cut.
4. Narrative factors:
Cancun upgrade, Bitcoin halving, interest rate cuts, and the launch of Ethereum ETF all occurred in June and before. After June, there is a high probability that only the news of the entry of Ethereum ETF funds will be seen for the time being, and other market narratives have not yet been seen. .
The above is the reason why it is said that the encryption market will have a major correction after June!
So no matter what happens, first of all, the goal remains unchanged. If the big pie is not in place, it will not go away. If it continues to rise in the past few months, before June, I will consider cleaning up some copycats and add positions to Bitcoin and Ethereum. During the bull market Chips are king.
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